Zero‑Dose Children: A Global Emergency and the Path Forward

Zero‑dose children are those who have not received even the first dose of the diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis (DTP) vaccine by their first birthday. This marks them as completely unprotected from serious childhood illnesses and indicates a failure to provide basic health services, a powerful marker of inequity and exclusion in health systems 

Global Trends: Progress Lost

A. Historic Gains and Recent Reversals

  • From 1980 to 2019, the number of zero‑dose children dropped from ~59 million to ~14.7 million, a ~75% decline.

  • However, coverage gains slowed drastically since 2010. Between 2010–2019, measles vaccination declined in 100 countries, and 21 of 36 high-income countries saw drops in DTP, measles, polio, or TB immunisation.

  • The COVID-19 pandemic worsened matters: zero‑dose children surged to 18.6 million in 2021, then modestly recovered to 15.7 million by 2023.

B. Vulnerable Regions & Countries

  • Over 50% of zero‑dose children live in just eight countries Nigeria, India, DR Congo, Ethiopia, Somalia, Sudan, Indonesia, and Brazil.

  • The most affected regions are Sub-Saharan Africa (~53%) and South Asia (~13%).

C. Emerging Threats

  • Even high-income countries are seeing resurgences in measles and polio due to rising vaccine hesitancy.

The Immunisation Cascade: How Vaccination Progresses

A major multi-country study across 92 LMICs found:

  • Zero‑dose prevalence is ~7.7%, while 76.8% of children who received any vaccine followed through with all four basic vaccines (BCG, polio, DTP, measles).

  • Drop-out rates are high: 4% drop between BCG → DTP1, 14% from DTP1 → DTP3, and 9% from DTP3 → measles vaccine .

Key insight: reaching children for their first routine vaccine significantly increases the chances of full immunization.

India in Focus: Second‑Highest Zero‑Dose Numbers

  • India had ~1.44 million zero-dose children in 2023, second only to Nigeria (~2.48 million).

  • This cohort represents ~13% of global zero‑dose children and ~23% of South Asia's total..

  • While absolute numbers are large, this equates to ~6% of India’s birth cohort—a decline from ~2.7 million in 2021 .

Geographic and Demographic Disparities

  • High-prevalence areas include large states Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, MP, Gujarat and tribal regions in the Northeast .

  • Disadvantaged groups: poor households, mothers with low education, Scheduled Tribes, and Muslims are disproportionately affected .

Impact of COVID-19

  • Routine immunization dropped sharply during lockdowns and hospital disruptions. Some recovery has occurred, but pre-pandemic coverage levels haven’t fully bounced back.

The COVID Disruption-a Setback and Partial Recovery

  • 2019: ~1.4 million zero-dose children

  • 2021: surged to 2.7 million amid COVID-19 disruptions

  • 2022: decreased to ~1.1 million

  • 2023: climbed again to 1.44 million 

The data highlights both resilience and fragility in India’s immunization systems.

Why Zero‑Dose Children Matter

  • They are most at risk for vaccine-preventable diseases and often lack broader health services.

  • They serve as barometers of health system strength and equity finding them reveals where essential health services are failing.

  • In India, bridging this gap supports Universal Health Coverage goals and helps prevent outbreaks in marginalized communities .

Why Nigeria Tops the List

A. Geographic & Demographic Disparities

  • Northern Nigeria, especially rural areas, holds the most zero‑dose children, states like Sokoto, Bauchi, Kano, Borno, and Yobe are hotspots.

  • Residents include nomadic Fulani and remote rural communities with very limited access to healthcare infrastructure .

B. Conflict, Insecurity & Climate

  • Ongoing violence, armed banditry, and climate-driven displacement in the North hinder safe and regular access to health services .

C. Weak Health Systems

  • Frequent vaccine stock-outs and broken cold chains make parents less likely to return after a failed attempt.

  • Nigeria has around 1–2 doctors per 10,000 people, far below WHO recommendations; many centers rely on unpaid volunteers.

  • The COVID‑19 pandemic strained the system further, disrupting routine immunization.

D. Poverty, Education & Poverty

  • Zero‑dose children disproportionately come from the poorest, rural households, often earning less than $1.90/day, with uneducated mothers and no prenatal care.

E. Vaccine Hesitancy & Misinformation

  • Persistent rumors and mistrustespecially in predominantly Muslim communities in the North include fears of infertility, disease, or Western plots.

  • Around 42–50% of caregivers either distrust healthcare workers or question vaccine safety.

F. Systemic Inequities & Governance

  • Pronounced sub‑national inequality, e.g. DPT‑1 coverage ranges from 5% in Sokoto to 91% in Surulere, Lagos.

  • Weak data systems, poor planning, and insufficient funding at local levels further leave many kids unreached. 

What’s Being Done

Nigeria, with support from WHO, UNICEF, Gavi, Global Fund, World Bank, and others, has launched integrated campaigns, like “Big Catch-up” plans, mobile outreach, community health workers (CHIPS) targeting the ~2.1–2.3 million zero‑dose children.
Efforts focus on:

  • Upgrading cold‑chain and supply,

  • Leveraging religious and community leaders to counter misinformation

  • Incentivizing vaccinations in hard‑to‑reach zones (e.g. New Incentives’ CCT programs

Vaccine Hesitancy Among Muslims

A. Concerns Over Halal Status

  • Some vaccines contain porcine-derived products (e.g., gelatin), which are considered haram (forbidden) in Islam. Religious authorities in regions like Aceh, Indonesia, have labeled certain vaccines haram, causing coverage to drop drastically sometimes to below 10%.

  • Even when halal alternatives exist, lack of clear labeling leads to confusion and mistrust .

B. Divine Fate (Qadar) and Religious Fatalism

  • A belief that health outcomes are preordained by Allah leads some Muslims to reject vaccines as interfering with divine will.

  • In Guinea, 46% believed vaccination during Ramadan was forbidden; in Malaysia, similar beliefs prevail.

C. Distrust Fueled by Rumors and Historical Events

  • Conspiracy theories (e.g., vaccines causing sterility, containing HIV, or being Western ploys to weaken Muslim populations) became rampant in Pakistan, Nigeria, and North India, sometimes endorsed by some local imams.

  • The CIA’s fake vaccination drive in Pakistan (intended to locate Osama bin Laden) worsened public trust, contributing to attacks on vaccinators.

D. Social & Cultural Barriers

  • In South Asia, conservative customs like purdah, impede women’s mobility, making it harder for female caregivers or girls to access vaccination services.

  • Religious leaders and local community influencers often shape opinions, contributing substantial weight to hesitancy or acceptance.

Solutions: How to Eliminate Zero‑Dose Gaps

A. Strengthen Primary Health Systems

  • Global & Indian initiatives like Gavi’s 2030 goal and Mission Indradhanush aim to reduce zero-dose cases dramatically.

  • Investment in frontline services, midwives, outreach teams, and cold-chain infrastructure is essential.

B. Locate & Target High-Need Communities

  • Use GIS tools, registry data, and household surveys to identify hotspots e.g., 143 priority districts in India’s latest implementation plan .

C. Community Engagement & Trust-Building

  • Leverage community leaders, faith-based outreach, and culturally sensitive communication to counter hesitancy and misinformation.

D. Make Vaccination Accessible

  • Deploy mobile clinics, integrated health camps in remote and slum areas, and combine immunization with maternal and child health services .

E. Monitor Continuously & Follow Up

  • Ensure zero‑dose children who receive one vaccine complete their schedules by integrating campaign efforts with routine health systems.

F. Combat Misinformation

  • Transparent messaging, digital tools, and local influencers can mitigate false narratives especially vital in countries like India and Australia where hesitancy is rising.

Effective Approaches to Reduce Vaccine Hesitancy Among Muslims

A. Halal Certification & Transparency: Clearly labeling vaccines as halal-approved and ensuring ingredients align with Islamic values.

B. Engaging Religious Leaders (Ulama and Imams): Trusted clerics issuing fatwas endorsing vaccination and offering guidance during Friday sermons have been effective (e.g., Pakistan’s polio campaign).

C. Cultural Sensitivity in Messaging: Tailoring communication to respect practices like Ramadan fasting and female privacy (e.g., using female vaccinators).

D. Building Trust Post-Flunks: Address historical mistrust by acknowledging past harms (e.g., CIA operation), reinforcing health infrastructure, and establishing transparent systems.

E. Localized Outreach & Education: Engage communities directly with religious leaders, women’s groups, and healthcare workers to explain vaccines, dismantle myths, and highlight community protection.

Real-World Successes

  • Polio eradication in Pakistan & Nigeria: Fatwas, community engagement, and religious leader advocacy brought about a 99.9% reduction in polio cases.

  • Malaysia’s COVID-19 campaign: Religious clarifications ensuring the vaccine’s halal status minimized hesitancy.

The Road to 2030 and Beyond

  • The Immunization Agenda 2030 aims to halve zero-dose children compared to 2019 a target only 18 of 204 countries have met thus far.

  • Success requires equity-first approaches, bold investment, resilience in health systems, and community solidarity.

Zero‑dose children are not just a vaccination shortfall, they signal systemic neglect and deep inequities. While the COVID-19 era has disrupted progress globally, it also emphasizes the urgency of action.

India’s decline from 2.7 million to 1.44 million zero-dose children shows promise but sustaining and accelerating this requires targeted, community-centred strategies. Globally, prioritizing the first vaccine touchpoint will pave the way for stronger health systems, reduced inequity, and healthier generations ahead.

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